Bitcoin DCA and position sizing:
calculators and worked examples
This site has three tools you can use directly (a position sizer, a DCA calculator and a risk exposure quiz) and ten articles. Seven use worked examples to cover how much to put in, how to split it, when to sell and how to run a DCA plan; three cover opening a Binance account and setting up recurring buys there.
Run the full position sizer →You have in spare money. How much should you put in?
These caps assume the money could go to zero: even in a total loss, you lose no more than the share you chose.70% is a stress scenario, not a limit on losses: in the last bear market bitcoin fell about 77% from peak to trough (daily high 69,000 on 10 Nov 2021 to daily low 15,476 on 21 Nov 2022, Binance BTCUSDT; the position sizer links the source), and a drop deeper than 70% would cost you more than the figure shown. The number also leaves out leverage, slippage and platform risk. The three tiers work back from accepting a 5%, 10% or 20% loss of this money. This site's rule of thumb is for beginners to start at 1%–3%; treat any result above 10% as capped at 10%.
Three tools
Each one takes a few numbers and gives a result, so you can run the arithmetic from the articles below on your own figures.
Position sizer
Enter your investable money, how much of it you can accept losing and the worst drop you assume. It returns a cap for this buy, the cap's share of your money and a size for each batch.
DCA calculator
Enter the amount per buy, the frequency and the plan length to get the total committed, the number of buys and the monthly equivalent. Pick an assumed drawdown to see the largest paper loss. It does not forecast returns.
Risk exposure quiz
Five questions on position size, how you react to drops, your emergency fund, leverage and hype. The result says whether your current approach leans aggressive or steady, and which way to adjust.
How much to put in, how to split it, when to sell
How much should I invest in bitcoin as a beginner?
Take emergency money, near-term spending and high-interest debt out of your savings, then work out a cap as acceptable loss ÷ assumed worst drop. Includes a table of 16 results for $100,000; beginners start at 1%–3%, with 10% as the ceiling.
Core-satellite crypto portfolio: how much in large caps vs altcoins?
Two template splits, 85/15 and 70/30, the arithmetic of a 15% satellite growing into 30% of the portfolio, and two ways to rebalance: by calendar or by threshold.
When to take profit and when to cut losses in crypto
To get your original stake back, sell average cost ÷ current price. For losses, two exit conditions that don't depend on the chart: your reason for buying has been overturned, or the position is costing you sleep. Ends with a sell-rules checklist.
DCA: is it worth it, when to pause, how often to buy, how to measure the return
Is bitcoin DCA worth it? DCA vs lump sum in two real markets
The same $5,000 in bitcoin. In a stretch that fell and then recovered, monthly DCA returned +4.91% and a lump sum −31.10%. In a rising stretch, DCA returned +15.35% and the lump sum +118.73%.
Should you pause DCA in a bear market? Stop, skip or keep buying
One 10-buy plan run three ways: stop after the 4th buy, −12.97%; skip three buys along the way, −2.48%; make all ten, +4.91%. It also covers the case where stopping loses less.
Should you DCA weekly or monthly? Daily, weekly and monthly buys compared
A per-buy cost table, how each buy ends up with a 1/n weight, and the intervals and month-end rule Binance Convert Recurring uses.
How to calculate your DCA return
A 10-buy example worked month by month: the DCA return is +4.91% while bitcoin fell 31.10% over the same stretch, and neither number is wrong. What average cost, simple return and XIRR each answer.
How Many Years to DCA Bitcoin to Avoid a Loss? A Backtest
Buying BTC at each month-end close since Aug 2017, 30.3% of start months were still down at 12 months, 25.3% at 24, 8.0% at 36, and 0 of just 63 at 48.
Doing DCA on Binance
Binance Auto-Invest (Now Convert Recurring): How to Set It Up
Auto-Invest's single-token and portfolio plans now sit under Recurring in Binance Convert. Six steps: where to find it, which plan type to pick, setting the amount and frequency, and where the cost is now that there is no separate fee.
When does Binance Recurring Buy execute? Low-balance rules
When a scheduled buy doesn't run, check three things first: the execution minute hasn't arrived yet, the balance was short for this round, or the plan was paused or cancelled. A plan is cancelled only after six straight months of failed rounds. The article ends with the full five-step order.
Before You DCA, Get the Account Right: Binance Signup, Verification and Security
What to have ready before you register (email, ID, an authenticator app), why identity verification gets rejected, and the settings for an account you may not open for months: authenticator, anti-phishing code, withdrawal whitelist.
Five position-sizing rules
Only invest what you can afford to lose
Before you buy, ask one question: if this money were gone entirely, could you still cover your living costs? If not, you are putting in too much. For how to work out the cap, see How much should I invest in bitcoin as a beginner?, or go straight to the position sizer.
Don't put it all in at once
Split the money you plan to invest into several buys. If you buy it all in one go and that buy lands near a high, you have nothing left to adjust with. For how often to buy, see Should you DCA weekly or monthly?
After a run-up, take some of your stake back
You don't need to wait for the top. Once the price has risen, sell part of the position and take some of your original money out. There is a formula for how much: to get the whole stake back, the share to sell is average cost ÷ current price. See When to take profit and when to cut losses in crypto.
Don't make decisions while it's falling
Write down the conditions under which you will sell while the market is quiet. During a drop, follow what you wrote and don't revise it. Whether to stop a DCA plan works the same way: see Should you pause DCA in a bear market?
If you don't understand it, leave it alone
If you can't say what gives a coin its value, don't buy it, and certainly don't make it a large position. For how much to hold in large caps and how much in altcoins, see Core-satellite crypto portfolio.
About these notes
Dingtouma is written for people new to crypto and covers only position sizing and DCA: how much to put in, how to split it, when to sell, and how to set up a DCA plan. Articles are signed Gu He. About the site and the author →
Risk warning: crypto prices are extremely volatile and you can lose your entire principal. The content on this site is investor education and a roundup of common practices, not investment advice, and is not responsible for any investment outcome. Past performance does not indicate future returns.
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